Half way through Black (?) Monday

Equities are sharply lower, but so far, they haven't dropped as much as they "should." If they hold on, or better, rally after lunch, we could see an end to selling sooner rather than later.

Despite Standard & Poor's efforts to undermine the (rather randomly run) US political process, the US bond market looks strong indeed. Hard to square that with hopes of an equities rally, but there it is.

Crude is down to $83, and copper is at $4, a 7 day drop of 11% or so, quite a lot for copper.

Ozzies have done nothing but go down for six days, and have given up 7¢ to the USD. Now they are, surprise, oversold -- as they were Friday.

€ and £ continue to go up yesterday, down today, sideways net. No decisions in the offing, at least none visible on the charts.USD continue to rally against $C. Another penny or so will bring parity, which we haven't had since January.

Gold is in the clouds. Looks like a good time to release any longs. Silver is not joining the tea party, which implies that gold's lofty price is craziness. But gold bugs are crazy and anyone who thinks gold and silver are the correct currency is worse than crazy.

After the US credit down grade

6:15 EDT sees the e-mini down and attacking Friday's lows. Bonds are down mildly. The dollar is up against the $A and looks like it might go more. The Euro started off up vs. the USD, but looks like it will not hold on.

If London and New York start selling equities, look for the USD to strengthen and bonds to rise, to hell with the dumb-ass "ratings" firms that were primary causes of the banking disaster of three years ago.

Lazy Summer Day

At least the markets behaved as if it were a lazy summer day. Corn was down sharply but corn was pretty much the only major item that moved much. Wheat, beans, crude, stocks and bonds all spent the day trying to wake up. Forex response to everything was nothing if not muted. Or maybe it was nothing AND muted.

The elephants in the room that the markets chose not to deal with today were the impending US debt limit expansion or technical default on one hand and the wide-spread European debt crisis on the other. What the worlds stock markets need is an invasion from Mars, one that we know we can defeat. All the countries will find a way to get paid as a result of a global war against a common enemy, the world's bourses will rally happily, OPEC will decide it is time to control the price of crude, which they will do by selling short one billion barrels which will break the backs of all the hedge funds. They in turn will have to put to work all their now-unemployed bright boys inventing ways to defeat Mars -- even if it is a hostile take-over of the Martian Stock Market(s). And everybody will live happily ever after. Don't they always?

USD weaker because...

Because there is no bad news to send shivers of fear into the trading community. Stock markets rose a bit today, as did crude. Bonds and gold were pretty much flat. Worries about a Greek default have been shelved, yet again, until June 28.