Showing posts with label crude oil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label crude oil. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Lazy Summer Day

At least the markets behaved as if it were a lazy summer day. Corn was down sharply but corn was pretty much the only major item that moved much. Wheat, beans, crude, stocks and bonds all spent the day trying to wake up. Forex response to everything was nothing if not muted. Or maybe it was nothing AND muted.

The elephants in the room that the markets chose not to deal with today were the impending US debt limit expansion or technical default on one hand and the wide-spread European debt crisis on the other. What the worlds stock markets need is an invasion from Mars, one that we know we can defeat. All the countries will find a way to get paid as a result of a global war against a common enemy, the world's bourses will rally happily, OPEC will decide it is time to control the price of crude, which they will do by selling short one billion barrels which will break the backs of all the hedge funds. They in turn will have to put to work all their now-unemployed bright boys inventing ways to defeat Mars -- even if it is a hostile take-over of the Martian Stock Market(s). And everybody will live happily ever after. Don't they always?

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Crude Oil - Commitment of Traders Update

The hedge funds have reduced their fraction of long positions from 30% of the longs to 23%. The big speculators dropped 3% from 11% to 8% of the longs but remained 11% of the shorts. Commercial banks, acting on their own account, it appears, have become the largest speculative holder of crude oil, holding some 313,000 contracts not balanced by shorts. Refiners are holding some 392,000 contracts.

In summary, refiners are long 26%, banks are long 44%, funds are long 23% and large specs are long 8%. That is, of course, 1% too many, but the difference is due to rounding.

It isn't really news,but... Obama can reduce the price of crude oil simply by instructing the CFTC to remove banks (ridiculous) status as hedgers. Were he to do that tomorrow, with a 30 day window for the banks to disgorge the contracts they hold, prices would drop at least $20 per barrel.