Friday, August 12, 2011

Week-end update Gold, Silver

 Gold has been a run-away train for some some time now. Gold bugs are sure it will last forever, for, in their infinite stupidity, they think(?) gold is the only true 'currency,' the only true store of value, the only standard by which a country can run a monetary system. At least the gold cranks say those things.

In the real world, gold is, for now, well above any possible "true value." Gold, like all other traded creatures, is either over-valued or under-valued, passing through fair value on the way from one to the other extreme. If you are wondering what gold's fair value is... so is everyone else except gold bugs.

Silver leads its own mundane, reality based existence, a rather different creature now than glamorous gold. But a few years ago, silver had a huge price run-up not shared by gold. There was money to be made on the trip up, and as much to made, even more quickly on the way down.

Gold is, as we all can see, clearly in a bull market. Silver was in a bear phase at the beginning of July, only to turn to the bull side, yielding a fairly easy $4/oz. Now it is flirting with going into a bear market.

What next? Volatility, I should imagine. Gold ran up 20% from early July to yesterday's high. That is too much too fast.

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