a 30min close >= 1211 creates the following set of targets -- may take through Monday.
A. 1230
B. 1242
C. 1252
D. 1258Publish Post
A. 1230
B. 1242
C. 1252
D. 1258Publish Post
Friday, August 5, 2011
Good and Bad
Pretty good new jobs numbers (117,000, well above most estimates), unemployment down 0.1%, and no stock market rally. Ugh! This may well portend noticeably lower stock market prices over the next few weeks/months.
Thursday, August 4, 2011
Today and Tomorrow
As is obvious, tomorrow can bring almost anything. Today's near-freefall in the equities markets translated into bonds and USD higher, everything else lower.
Labor Report tomorrow morning: If 75,000 jobs are created, as the market expects, the free-fall will end. We might even see a rally. In the unlikely event of > 100,000 jobs, stocks will rise sharply, bonds and the USD will fall sharply.
BUT if the report comes in < 50,000 we could see a repeat of today.
Labor Report tomorrow morning: If 75,000 jobs are created, as the market expects, the free-fall will end. We might even see a rally. In the unlikely event of > 100,000 jobs, stocks will rise sharply, bonds and the USD will fall sharply.
BUT if the report comes in < 50,000 we could see a repeat of today.
BoJ Intervention
Bank of Japan intervention in the currency market proved to be the straw that, at least for the past several hours, has broken the camel's back. S&P futures were rising and bonds falling; no more.
Unsurprisingly, the Yen is down, down, down against the USD. For rather opaque reasons, the $A and $C have reversed their early course, and are down sharply against the USD. € and £ are somewhat lower.
This surprise means the pre-session targets are all DOA. It looks like the $C would dearly love to reach 9778 and the $A 1.0525, if the morning US Employment report doesn't turn things around -- and it may not, with the big picture report due out Friday.
Unsurprisingly, the Yen is down, down, down against the USD. For rather opaque reasons, the $A and $C have reversed their early course, and are down sharply against the USD. € and £ are somewhat lower.
This surprise means the pre-session targets are all DOA. It looks like the $C would dearly love to reach 9778 and the $A 1.0525, if the morning US Employment report doesn't turn things around -- and it may not, with the big picture report due out Friday.
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
Expectations for Aug 4, 2011
FOREX: expect the dollar to lose ground tomorrow. € is trying to reach 4570 but that should be out of reach tomorrow: think more like 4400-4425. Ozzies will be shooting for 840; £ would like to get to 6550, but that may be more than it can manage tomorrow; and $C will make a run at 9510.
STOCKS/BONDS: Stocks are likely to rally a bit and bonds are due for a drop. The 10yr would like to get below 126, and the 30yr would like to get to the 129'14-'16 zone. The emini will be looking for 1275 or so.
ENERGY: rallies in crude and natural gas are probable.
STOCKS/BONDS: Stocks are likely to rally a bit and bonds are due for a drop. The 10yr would like to get below 126, and the 30yr would like to get to the 129'14-'16 zone. The emini will be looking for 1275 or so.
ENERGY: rallies in crude and natural gas are probable.
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
Forex for Aug 3, pre session
Ozzies are not so bullish now. I'd make the odds about 3:2 for strengthening of the USD Wednesday. Probably better odds will show up late in the week. The Euro continues to slide against the USD. The miracle is that it hasn't been hit hard. BP...??? and the $C is likely to continue to fall against the USD. On the USD/$C chart, look for a run to 9780 or higher.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)