Monday, July 18, 2011

Waiting...

The world's bourses/stock markets were down today and gold was up, but everyone else was waiting. Forex markets are presumably waiting to see which of the other shoes will drop next... Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Spain or the US. I suppose that spells PIIGS-US or maybe that's US PIIGS.

The grain markets are mostly likely now getting ready for either a bumper crop (15% chance) or a price rise that will knock the US Federal Reserve on its backside, along with its prediction for markedly lower food prices come autumn.

The Pink Elephant that few are watching is the Chinese economy. Self-admittedly, they have considerable manufacturing over-capacity. Big chunks of capital are going into the real estate market and have made Beijing one of the most costly cities of the world in which to live or do business. And the fat lady has yet to sing: foreign developers are building class A office space at record rates. That guarantees there will be an office space glut, and it is likely to be sooner ( a couple of years) rather than later (five years or so).

Why a pink elephant, a beast Americans normally associate with drunkards? Because the giant developers generally build with all the caution of a drunkard. And because drinking is one of the two or three favorite past times of nearly every developer.

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