Daily Blatt August 15 2011

$US/ChF is trying to turn up. Day trading only in ChF until direction (most likely ChF down) clarifies.

$A broke to the upside today. 1.08 is the target for now.

€ had a strong bullish day, but still are not trending. The same is true for £.

$C look to be starting another run up. On the $US/$C chart, that is down with a target at 94

Bonds had an inside day and still look as if the next move will be down. ES had a small upward move. I expect the dominant theme, for a few days at least, will be up. Crude looks much like ES.

HG is not a happy camper. For the moment, I'd not trade long.

NG is curious. In some ways it is less bearish than HG, even though it was down and HG up today. I'm in no hurry to take a position here, either.

End of Day Aug 11

Energy had good days, and look like they want to go up even though still in a variety of bear market.

The bond market did not care for the mediocre cover ratio of today's 30 year auction, even though yields were down 44+ basis points. Technically, the 10yr looks like it will go to 130 and the 30 yr to 124 '20.

The emini hasn't really turned up yet. Nevertheless, it seems like it wants to make a run at 1212 or maybe 1244 (or maybe turn into a bull market?)

In Forex trading, the Yen was sideways, ChF down, $A, $C, £, € were all up, but no trends, not even prospectively, are evident.

Grain reports were out today. Some of the follow up hoopla called for a $2 to $3 increase in the price of beans. Maybe so, but yesterday I was talking about beans possibly rising because the Chinese are buying -- or have already bought, given they usually do their buying before press releases announce it. Beans were up, but not any sort of break-away move. Other grains were quite ho-hum about the numbers. While I'm clearly bullish on corn, and don't see how wheat and beans can fail to follow, at this moment none of them are in what I would describe as a bull market.

Daily Blatt August 10 2011

Bonds had an inside day after the players over-reacted to yesterday's Fed announcement.

Equities were down today, giving up most of yesterday's gains. Copper went with them while energy managed to hold on for only small losses.

Grains & rice were weighed down by the negativity of the stock market.

The $US was clearly stronger against $A, $C, £ and €. Muted against ChF and  Yen.

Prediction for tomorrow: continued volatility and indecisiveness.

End of Day Aug 9

Equities had a strong showing today, likely putting an end to the decline. Bonds were up very strongly on the Fed announcement, but gave back most of the days gains by the close. Natural gas is the strongest of the industrial components, but both copper and crude followed equities. My biases for tomorrow are (1) leave bonds alone, and (2) any trading of this group tomorrow likely should be from the long side.

Gold was up but silver down. Were I going to trade, I'd trade silver from the short side.

In Forex, it appears that the appreciation of the USD is over, and we will be returning mostly to the USD down. Specifically, $A and $C both traded at parity against the USD, but both seemed to have reversed course. The next moves look to be against the USD. The € and the £ are too choppy to provide decent risk/return ratios for position traders.

Corn is in neutral. I think the bull market will resume there, taking prices up very considerably. My current target for corn is 820. Wheat is in neutral with a bearish bias. Beans are in bear mode, but I don't much like trading the short side this time of the year. Rice is in neutral but my target for it is just under 1900. Oats, like beans are in bear mode.

The Markets Hold Their Breath

Rice was up a little, beans down a little, corn & wheat about even. The US Dollar was down a little, copper up a little, natural gas and crude oil about even and bonds even to down a little, depending on maturity.  Finally, the stock market was down a little.

When congress (and it is congress' duty, and the sole responsibility of congress and the power to act lies entirely with congress under the constitution) either does or does not extend the debt ceiling, the world will exhale. Stocks will go up, or down, according to what congress does, and that will drive pretty much all markets to some sort of  activity.

Except, maybe, grains. In the very short run, grains may see some volatility from the budget resolution, but over the coming weeks into October and sometimes later, it's all about weather.

Greece in the Grease?

When the London exchanges opened, Forex players begin to buy USD against Euro area currency (GBP, Euro and ChF). Why? Because Greece is perceived as having already fallen into the grease, taking the Euro area from the frying pan into the fire. The world's stock markets were down, hitting swing lows, crude was down, gold up slightly ($4), US bonds up as much (30yr) or more (10yr) than they lost yesterday and the USD up varying degrees of 'sharply.' The Loonie & the Ozzie were least affected of the five currencies I trade (the others being Euros, ChF and Cable).

Euros stopped right on top of their long-term moving average; GBP closed below its long term MA but ChF remains well above its presumptive breaking point. If today's negativism towards the Euro-zone financial situation remains in the market, Euros can be expect to drop to 1.35 or lower. 

Absent some good news, the DJIA seems headed down, at least to 11,400. Similarly, without a pick-up in demand, crude seems headed to the $83-$85 range. If the damn fools in D.C. cease to allow Wall Street banks hedger status, another $25 - $20 will come out of that price. Even oil company economists are now saying that the supply & demand 'value' of crude is $65-$70, and the difference between that an $100 is ALL hedge funds & Wall Street banks.